Eli Lilly (LLY) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Consensus Revenue | $20,520M (rounded to nearest million) |
| Q2 2026 Consensus EPS | $7.74 |
| Q2 2026 Gross Margin | 83.4% (consensus) |
| Guidance (as of Q1 2026) | FY26 revenue $82,000M–$85,000M; non-GAAP EPS $35.50–$37.00; performance margin 47.0–48.5% |
| Q1 2026 Actuals | Revenue $19,799M (+56% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $8.55 (+156% YoY), gross margin 82.6% |
| Q2 2025 Actuals | Revenue $14,669M (restated), gross margin 82.5%, net income $5,030M, EPS $5.50 |
| YoY Comparable | Q2 2026 faces a very strong +56% YoY comp from Q1 and +38% YoY in Q2 2025 |
| Key Watch Areas | Foundayo (orforglipron) launch ramp, Mounjaro/Zepbound volume, price/mix, OUS growth, Medicare/Medicaid/commercial access, Employer Connect traction, retatrutide pipeline updates, gross margin trend, inventory levels, guidance update |
Summary and Conclusions
- Eli Lilly enters Q2 2026 earnings coming off a record Q1, with revenue up +56% YoY and robust growth across all key products and geographies.
- Consensus expects Q2 2026 revenue of $20.5B and EPS of $7.74, implying continued strong double-digit growth but facing a tough YoY comp (+38% YoY in Q2 2025).
- The most important factors for this quarter are:
- The initial commercial ramp of Foundayo (orforglipron), including prescription volumes, channel mix (LillyDirect, PBMs, Medicare), and new-to-class patient starts.
- Continued volume growth and market share for Mounjaro and Zepbound, especially in the U.S. and international markets.
- Price/mix headwinds, especially as management has guided to low to mid-teens price erosion for FY26.
- Progress on access expansion (Medicare Bridge program, Employer Connect, Medicaid, commercial opt-ins).
- Updates on retatrutide and eloralintide clinical programs and broader pipeline momentum.
- Gross margin trajectory as new manufacturing sites come online and product mix evolves.
- Any update to FY26 guidance, especially if Q2 outperforms.
Q2 2026 Preview Table
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | Q2 2025 Actual (Restated) | YoY Change (Implied) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $20,520 | $14,669 | +39.9% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 83.4 | 82.5 | +90 bps |
| Net Income ($M) | $7,544 | $5,030 | +50.0% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $7.74 | $5.50 | +40.7% |
*Consensus figures are not actuals; Q2 2025 actuals are restated per latest filings.
FY 2026 Guidance (as of Q1 2026)
| Metric | Prior Guidance | Updated Guidance (Q1 2026) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $80,000–$83,000 | $82,000–$85,000 | Raised $2B at both ends after Q1 beat |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $33.50–$35.00 | $35.50–$37.00 | Raised $2.00 at both ends |
| Performance Margin % | 46.0–47.5 | 47.0–48.5 | |
| Tax Rate % | 18–19 | Unchanged |
Q1 2026 Actuals vs. Q1 2025
| Metric | Q1 2026 Actual | Q1 2025 Actual | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $19,799 | $12,729 | +56% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 82.6 | 83.5 | -90 bps |
| Net Income ($M) | $7,396 | $2,759 | +168% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $8.26 | $3.06 | +170% |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $8.55 | $3.34 | +156% |
Q2 2025 Actuals (Restated)
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual (Restated) |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $14,669 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 82.5 |
| Net Income ($M) | $5,030 |
| EPS (GAAP) | $5.50 |
Key Factors to Watch in Q2 2026
1. Foundayo (Orforglipron) Launch Metrics- Early indicators: >20,000 patients treated to date by late April, 80% new-to-class.
- Commercial access confirmed at 2 of 3 largest PBMs by mid-May; Medicare Bridge program starts July 1.
- DTC campaign began in June; expect acceleration in H2.
- Watch for: prescription volumes, channel mix, new patient starts, HCP adoption, consumer awareness.
2. Mounjaro and Zepbound Volume and Market Share- Q1 2026: Mounjaro revenue +125% YoY, Zepbound +80% YoY.
- U.S. incretin analog obesity market: total prescriptions +80% YoY in Q1.
- International: Mounjaro now >50% share OUS, 75% of OUS sales are cash pay.
- Watch for: continued volume growth, share gains, impact of generic semaglutide in select markets.
3. Price/Mix Headwinds- Management guides to low to mid-teens price erosion for FY26.
- Q1 2026: U.S. price -7% YoY (excl. one-time rebate adjustment, -10%); OUS price -25% YoY (China NRDL).
- Monitor: realized price trends, impact of new access agreements, mix shift to lower-priced channels.
