Petrobras (PBR) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points Table
| Focus Area | Details & What to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue & EBITDA | Consensus expects Q2 2026 revenue of $30,170M (+41% YoY) and EBITDA of $16,135M (+54% YoY). |
| Net Income & EPS | Q2 2026 consensus EPS: $1.22 (+98% YoY). Q1 2026 actual EPS: $0.93. |
| Production Volumes | Q1 2026 oil production: 2.58M bbl/d; April 2026: 2.73M bbl/d. Watch for continued ramp-up and records. |
| Refinery Utilization | Q1 2026 utilization: 97.4%, with April/May reportedly >100%. Monitor for sustained high rates. |
| CapEx & Investment Pace | Q1 2026 CapEx: $5B; FY26 guidance: $16.9B. Look for updates on acceleration or reprioritization. |
| Debt & Cash Flow | Q1 2026 gross debt: $71.2B (targeting $67B by YE26, $65B long-term). Cash: $9.1B. |
| Dividend Policy | Ordinary dividends at 45% of FCF; management signals low probability of extraordinary dividends in 2026. |
| Macro/Geopolitical Risks | Management focused on Brent volatility, government subsidies, and market share retention. |
Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 is expected to show strong YoY growth in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS, driven by record oil production, higher refinery utilization, and a favorable Brent price environment.
- Production volumes are at all-time highs, with April 2026 setting a new monthly record. Management is focused on sustaining and potentially exceeding the upper end of production guidance.
- Refining operations are running at or above full capacity, supporting domestic fuel supply and reducing import needs.
- CapEx execution remains disciplined, with flexibility to accelerate value-accretive projects if cash flow allows, but management reiterates capital discipline and prioritizes debt reduction.
- Dividend policy remains unchanged: 45% of FCF as ordinary dividends, with extraordinary dividends unlikely unless there is clear, sustainable surplus cash.
- Key risks include Brent price volatility, geopolitical disruptions, and the need to balance investment, debt, and shareholder returns.
Quarterly Financial Snapshot — Actuals and Consensus
Quarterly Results and Estimates ($M)
| Quarter | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Income | EPS | Cash Flow/Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026E | 30,170 | 16,135 | 1.22 | 1.01 | |
| Q1 2026A | 25,481 | 12,535 | 5,012 | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Q4 2025A | 23,797 | 11,580 | 3,446 | 0.57 | |
| Q3 2025A | 25,020 | 11,998 | 4,821 | 0.67 | |
| Q2 2025A | 21,334 | 10,508 | 5,620 | 0.62 | |
| Q1 2025A | 22,141 | 11,107 | 5,919 | 0.82 |
*Consensus figures for Q2 2026; actuals for prior quarters.
Annual Financial Snapshot — Actuals and Consensus
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Net Income | EPS | Cash Flow/Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | 110,883 | 57,412 | 26,517 | 4.05 | 3.14 |
| 2025A | 92,916 | 45,753 | 20,691 | 3.22 | 5.50 |
| 2024A | 84,067 | 41,587 | 13,231 | 2.01 | 4.98 |
Recent Performance and Year-over-Year Comparables
- Q2 2025 actual revenue: $21,334M; EBITDA: $10,508M; EPS: $0.62.
- Q2 2026 consensus revenue: $30,170M (+41% YoY); EBITDA: $16,135M (+54% YoY); EPS: $1.22 (+98% YoY).
- Q1 2026 actual revenue: $25,481M (+19% YoY vs. Q1 2025); EBITDA: $12,535M (+13% YoY).
- 2025 full-year revenue: $92,916M (+10% YoY); EBITDA: $45,753M (+10% YoY); EPS: $3.22 (+60% YoY).
Conclusion: Petrobras is coming off a relatively easier YoY comparable for Q2, as Q2 2025 was impacted by lower Brent prices and only the early stages of the current production ramp-up. The YoY growth rates for Q2 2026 are expected to be very strong.
